The Future of Halloween

Just a quickie for fun… what is the future of Halloween?

This article from PRNewsNow  points to the ongoing trend of Halloween being more of an adult celebration than a time of enjoyment for children. Reason: The ”Baby Boomers,” who are the “never-grow-old” generation, have made it such, desiring to remain young and re-create the fun they had at Halloween as children. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that they are the demographic with the financial resources to generate a market for costumes, party items, decorations, food and Halloween treats, etc. As the article states:

When it comes to retail spending and the holidays, Halloween ranks only second to Christmas. A $5 billion industry and growing, 60 percent of consumers reported taking part in some type of Halloween celebration in 2007 and spending an estimated $1.82 billion in costumes alone, according to the National Retail Federation.

However, the present financial crisis makes it harder for “luxury items” and non-essentials to thrive; they’re always the first to go when people are hit hard in the wallet. If this economic downturn is long-term (as it appears to be), will Halloween - and Christmas - possibly return to being a family-oriented holiday that along with other emerging social factors) works to change the fabric of society in favor of close-knit relationships? Our holidays and traditions are often an expression of the values we hold as a society, and can in turn reinforce those values. Will changing holiday traditions restore the concept of the “neighborhood” as a catalyst for social cohesion, trust, and a stability that could transform the quality of life within our cities? Without all the adult parties taking place, the inviting porch lights could be turned on again on All Hallows Eve, welcoming children and their families to make positive and relationship-building contact with one another. (This scenario has been brought to you by the unofficial organization for global resession ”silver linings.”)

Immigration is another issue, having introduced differing cultural ideas into the mix of national values and traditions, and Halloween is no exception. In particular, Dia de los Muertos has become much more popular in the U.S., not only in Mexican communities, but also among the general population where there is a large concentration of Mexican immigrants. This rise in Mexican immigrants into the U.S. (and this idea can be applied to multiple issues globally) is having the effect of changing the idea of Halloween through a melding of cultural ideas into a new, hybrid holiday.  Of course, many of the holidays that we celebrate today are actually hybrids already, having changed in meaning and practice over the centuries as immigrants, missionaries, and conquering armies adopted the customs of the lands and people of which they became a part:

Tracing Halloween’s origins leads us back to the Celtic festival of Samhain (pronounced sow-in, with sow rhyming with cow). The Celts, living two thousand years ago and beyond in what is now the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France, celebrated their new year on what is to our calendars November 1st. However, their New Year festival began the day before, with the Samhain celebration. The Samhain festival honored the Celtic lord of death, signaled the end of the harvest season and the beginning of winter, a season of cold, darkness, and decay, and also ushered in a new Celtic year. As such, the Samhain festival was a rather big deal for the Celts. It was a harvest festival, a New Year festival, and a celebration honoring their lord of death, all wrapped into one huge event. The beginning of winter was also celebrated, but the beginning of winter is naturally connected to the end of harvest, so these two are essentially the same.

The first twist to this Autumn celebration came about 40 A.D., when the Roman Empire conquered the Celts. Two Roman Autumn festivals combined with the Celtic Samhain festival; the Feralia festival, honoring the dead, and a festival honoring the goddess of fruit and trees, Pomona. With the arrival of the Romans, the New Year aspect of the festival is dropped, as the Roman calendar has a different new year than the Celts. The Romans ruled the Celts for around four hundred years, during which time the Catholic church gained a strong hold in Europe. This had a huge impact as Europe changed from a place ruled completely by the Romans to a continent with many nations.

In the 800s A.D., the Catholic church replaced Samhain with All Saints’ Day, orginally to be celebrated on May 13th. This date was changed to Nov. 1st shortly thereafter by Pope Gregory III. In accordance with the Catholic policy of the day to incorporate pagan beliefs, ideals, and religion into the Catholic church as much as possible, the old pagan customs, traced back to the Samhain celebration, were made much a part of this holy day. Later, the Catholic church made Nov. 2nd All Souls’ Day, a day to honor the dead. As such, pagan customs of honoring the dead with sacrifices, festivals, and celebrations remain present around the same time they were first celebrated. They have simply morphed from what they were to a half-Christian, half-pagan series of celebrations. In addition, October 31st, the day before All Saints’ Day, became known as All Hallows Eve, or All Hallow e’en. From this last term, we get the modern word ‘Halloween.’ (Origins of Halloween)

(Side note: I realize that there are vast differences in Halloween and Dia de los Muertos, so no cultural offense was intended. The loss of cultural traditions and customs is also an issue when considering the effects of globalization. My intention was to demonstrate how change takes place throughout history through cultural diffusion.)

According to the information on the Wikipedia page for “Dia de los Muertos,”

In other communities, interactions between Mexican traditions and American culture are resulting in celebrations in which Mexican traditions are being extended to make artistic or sometimes political statements. For example, in Los Angeles, California, the Self Help Graphics & Art Mexican-American cultural center presents an annual Day of the Dead celebration, that includes both traditional and political elements, such as altars to honor the victims of the Iraq War highlighting the high casualty rate among Latino soldiers. An updated, inter-cultural version of the Day of the Dead is also evolving at a cemetery near Hollywood. There, in a mixture of Mexican traditions and Hollywood hip, conventional altars are set up side-by-side with altars to Jayne Mansfield and Johnny Ramone. Colorful native dancers and music intermix with performance artists, while sly pranksters play on traditional themes.

In effect, Halloween will continue to change to reflect the cultures, influeces, social issues, and global shifts - just as it always has.

An interesting article from the Herald Sun in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA notes that the famous University of North Carolina party that takes place in the downtown area has a negative financial and property impact on local businesses. Officials in that city have gathered to discuss the future of the Halloween party, hoping to create a safer environment that weeds out visitors to the city who are not university students. Again, a desire to return to a safer and more community related expression of the holiday, albeit for financial reasons rather than social ones.

Ah, candy! I would be amiss if I left out this important part of Halloween. When my children come back from their “trick or treat” haul, they usually have about 3 months worth of candy each. (By my estimation, not theirs!) No worry, though; I don’t think anyone forgot about the sweets. According to Brandweek,

Kohl’s, Mars, Lillian Vernon and Ballard Designs are among the companies looking for an early boost from this profitable holiday. Halloween generated an estimated $5.07 billion in sales last year, per the National Retail Federation, Washington… In the candy aisle, Mars jumped ahead of rival Hershey and soon-to-be subsidiary Wm. Wrigley Jr. by launching HalloweenMillion.com last week. The Web site, created by G2, New York, features an instant-win sweepstakes with chances to win $1 million and Visa gift cards… Despite the economy, the National Confectioners Assn. projects Halloween candy sales will increase by 2.8% to $2.265 billion this year.

Lastly, in a nod to the recently coined phrase “Pornification of America,” it could also be said that there is a “Horrorfication of America.” According to an article from the Oregon Daily Emerald,

An article titled “Violence Exposure in Real-life, Video Games, Television, Movies, and the Internet: Is There Desensitization?” by Jeanne Funk from the University of Toledo says a possible reason for the increase in gore and violence is that the American populace suffers from hypoesthesia. Because of a growing level of desensitization, the envelope needs to be pushed and a higher level of stimulation must be sustained or exceeded. This theory is used to explain why people are seeing an increasing amount of sex and violence in the media.

“I think we are people and a generation and a country of extremism,” says Brendan Nieubuurt, an English graduate. “We want to be shocked and to keep pushing the limits.”

In other words, we certainly haven’t lost our taste for being scared. But our monsters now tend to reflect the modern dangers of everyday life and the violence we see ourselves inflicting on one another around the world moreso than the fictituous characters from yester-year such as Count Dracula, Frankenstein’s Monster, or The Wolfman. Even horror movies such as “Quarantine,” with the recurring theme of “Zombies Gone Wild” is playing on our fear of pandemics and global disease control, something much more realistic (and scary) than “The Creature from the Black Lagoon.” It may be that we are not only desensitized to images of horror, but that we are more aware of the many dangers that face humanity and or collective future.

Happy Halloween!

P.S. Enjoy this post from Paleo-Future that highlights “Robot Halloween Costumes” from the 1950’s - a nod to a view of the future that never was. (I swear that I had a very similar costume - homemade - that I wore at a Boy Scout jamboree during one October in the 70’s. I wish I had a pic!)

Image: Just-Us-3 (Flickr)

Image: Frank Spencer (This image is from an invitation that I received recently to attend a “Dia de los Muertos” celebration being held by a local family who usully has a spooky party a few days before October 31st. The invitation demonstrates the mental association that people hold concerning various traditions that resemble the modern American holiday of Halloween.)

Is Humanity Growing Up?

I apologize for not having blogged in quite a awhile. I’ve been out of town off and on since early September, both for the purposes of vacationing and networking. Anyway, I’m back, and I have plenty of ideas and thoughts roaming around “upstairs.”

On September 12th, I led a workshop on the  ”Journey into New Levels of Transformational Futures through the Lens of Human Development” at the Transmillennial 2008 conference in Colorado Springs. The conference celebrated its 20th birthday, and was held at the beautiful Glen Eyrie castle. What a treat just to be in Colorado Springs; speaking and lodging at the castle was icing on the cake!

So, back to the real the topic: Are we emerging into new levels of collective development that can lead to global transformation? Before I go any further, just let me say that I’m not suggesting some type of future utopia, and I’m not turning a blind eye to the myriad of problems we face or the complexity that runs through our actions and decisions, creating both negative and positive outcomes simultaneously. You can think of a million reasons why we are not “growing up” as humanity, why nothing “under the sun” has really changed throughout the course of human history, or why disaster is imminent. (This being in terms of human interaction, social settings at their deepest meaning, or the larger stories that define our existence; here, I’m not talking about new technological innovations, even though these are connected to the narrative of human change as well.)

What I am suggesting is that a shift may be taking place that can allow for humanity to make truly transformative decisions about the entirety of human interaction and holistic cosmological dynamics. Just as a baby makes unwise decisions without adult guidance, young adults can make better decisions based on collected intelligence and critical thought, and full-grown adults can apply those ideas in a systemic and integrated fashion, so humanity could be moving through these natural growth stages as well in an evolutionary fashion. This idea is fraught with complex problems and discontinuities, but is there evidence that this may be the case in a general sense?

In an article entiltled, “Why We Need New Ways of Thinking,” Barry Boyce said this of the need for (and the shift toward) human development in terms of thinking and acting:

 Adam Kahane says our approach to the future must meet three criteria. It must simultaneously be systematic (not piecemeal and divided into silos), participative (involving many people’s ideas, energy, talent, and expertise), and emergent (able to move and adapt nimbly in a minefield of uncertainty). The hope is that we will act with courage and creativity; the fear is that if we don’t, the world will face debilitating collapse on many fronts.

(More from Adam Kahane in my next post.)

And this is why I believe that we are making a collective shift toward a greater level of transformative human development: People in many different arenas are reporting a greater sense of awareness in terms of thinking and acting in ways that are more systemic, participative, and emergent than we have possibly ever seen before on a global scale. This is partly because we have the ability to be more global, connected, and informed than ever before, and partly because our problems are bigger than ever before. (And those two dynamics feed off of one another in a seemingly endless cycle.) But I believe it is also due to humanity simply growing up as well! Mind you, this growth is not coming about simply because we see the value of geting smarter and working together - I’m not sure I could possibly argue in the positive for that point of view. And it may be due to the severity and urgency of our problems. But that’s ok- as with all evolutionary processes, growth often comes from the need for change due to the failings of the present environment or the inability to respond to that environment. Schumpeter’s theory of “Creative Destruction” helps to describe this forced change to better futures as well, albeit from a slightly different angle. (Schumpeter saw continual innovation as a force that destroys the old and established ways of operating in business and economics.)

Commenting on the use of foresight in creating transformational futures, Dr. Don Beck noted that:

A shift from blame and be blamed, or even live and let live, in the direction of thrive and help thrive, may hold the key. Ultimately, even subcultures must pass through stages of development.

In his report entilted, “The 2020 Challenge,” Duane Elgin noted that:

Now, at the turn of the millennium, we find ourselves in an unprecedented situation. Humanity has become so powerful that we appear to be doing irreparable harm to the Earth. We are being called on to develop a new level of maturity and responsibility. We also see the positive stirrings of a sustainable future in countless experiments at the grassroots level around the world. We have come to a great choice-point in our journey. Although humans have been faced with challenges throughout history, we have never before been confronted with a challenge together. Our time is unique in one crucial respect: the circle has closed-there is nowhere to escape. For the first time in our history, the entire human population is confronted with a predicament whose solution will require us to work together in a common enterprise that respects our rich diversity.

How can we make sense of this journey? Is humanity living out a larger story whose outlines we are only now beginning to recognize? Underneath the diversity of human experience, are we collectively involved in exploring, and creating, a common story? Joseph Campbell, a world-renowned scholar who invested his life exploring the myths and stories that have brought meaning to people and civilizations throughout history, discovered a common story at the heart of the world’s cultures. He called this story the “hero’s journey.” The standard pathway of this journey has three stages: separation, initiation, and return. .”  The hero begins by leaving his home; he sets out on a journey of learning and discovery, with many trials and tests along the way. This is the separation stage. There comes a point in his journey where the hero undergoes a supreme test and initiation into the reality of the world and its ways. With that hard-won, sacred knowledge, he returns from his adventure with the capacity for personal renewal or even, says Campbell, “the means for the regeneration of society.”  If we apply this simple model of separation, initiation, and return to humanity’s journey, at what stage in it might we be?

Yes, we may not be where we should be, where we would like to be, where we need to be; but we are moving in the right direction, especially in terms of new grassroot networks and initiatives that are redefining what it means to be human, both individually and collectively. This change can be seen in the way that social architects are “reframing” the use and purpose of cities; it can be seen in the way social entrepreneurs are addressing the problems that big organizations, institutions, and governments have been unable to solve; and it can be seen in the way that social designers are utilizing the best aspects of globalization and our underlying connectivity that causes us to either rise or fall together. There is so much more I can say about humanity’s growth and development, so I’ll address different aspects and viewpoints of human emergence in subsequent posts. For now, I’d love to hear what you think and see as concerns our collective journey into transformational futures!

Superstruct Update: This Game Could Change Everything!

Ok, now that I’ve got your attention…

First, as timely and effective as Superstruct will be, this game will not change everything. No “one thing” will change everything! I actually intended the title as a little futurist humor (very little) in response to a post by Futurist, Speaker, and Writer Jamais Cascio. Click here to see what I mean.

Second, since I last wrote about Superstruct, the game and its launch have been gaining more attention from the media. Here is an excerpt from a recent article appearing in Discover magazine, detailing the purpose and potential of this exciting online project: 

It’s a warm September morning in the year 2019, and you snap on NPR’s Morning Edition to catch a few minutes of the news before biking off to work. But an older and wiser Steve Inskeep has grim news for you today. The Global Extinction Awareness System, a supercomputer that accurately predicted the extinction of red squirrels several years ago, has run the numbers for our own species through the computer, and our odds of survival aren’t good. According to GEAS, Homo sapiens may go extinct by the year 2042.

That’s the scenario that greets players in the forthcoming online game Superstruct, which is being run by the think tank Institute for the Future. Beginning on September 22^nd, players will be invited to plunge into the troubled world of 2019, and to begin to work towards solutions that could buy our species a little more time on the planet. They’re forced to cope with five “super-threats” that are wearing down our civilization, including devastating outbreaks of a pandemic respiratory disease, climate refugees who have fled homelands made unlivable by global warming, and legions of hackers who exult in bringing down global information networks…

The team called the new game Superstruct because “society’s existing structures and organizations aren’t up to the incredible challenges facing us in the 21^st century,” Vian says, and players will have to build new structures on top of the old. The threats the players will confront are based on the institute’s own research about how things could go horribly wrong for humans over the coming decades. “There are some scenarios out there that talk about the real threat of human extinction by the end of the century,” Vian says. “So the circumstances present in the game world are a little exaggerated, but it’s a plausible worst-case scenario.”

In Superstruct, players will bring their own personal knowledge and experiences to the table. “We don’t need everybody to be experts on how climate might change and how the economy might be impacted,” says McGonigal. “If you’re a teenaged girl, tell us how a teenaged girl would respond to this crisis. We need that personal intelligence from everybody.” The players will help imagine and document the world of 2019, and will work together to come up with solutions to the challenges that are presented throughout the six-week game. Cascio says that his highest hope is that the collaborating players will come up with innovative ideas that have applications here, in the real world of 2008. “The mass of ideas can become almost an epiphany engine,” he says.

Forecasting the Future May Be a Matter of Fun and Games, Discover, Eliza Strickland

I’ll be posting my first Superstruct scenario and strategies very soon - right here on my blog - as I am on the Superstruct Advisory Board for the “Outlaw Planet” scenario. In this scenario,

“In 2019, the mobile internet and sensor networks we rely on to hold or societies together are being hacked, griefed, and gamed.”

Of course, there are four other scenarios in the game, and you can take a quick look at the Superstruct site in the link above, request an email alert for the game launch (October 6th), and even try out a special advance mission. I hope you enjoy the story-line and Super Structure that begin to unfold for my particular scenario, as well as the others in the game, and I definitely hope that you will participate in game play to help develop solutions to very real problems now facing the human race!

UPDATE: Check out this post from Jamais Cascio on how Superstruct could elicit some “War of the Worlds” type responses from viewers, with IFTF playing the part of Orsen Wells, I assume. (Yeah, if anybody actually believes that aliens are attacking, don’t blame me!)

Jay Gary on the Future in Current Politics

Jay Gary has recently written an excellent article on exploring the issue of foresight in regards to the current political scene in the United States, and since I’ve been ultra-busy lately  - without time to post an original blog entry - I’m submitting it for your enjoyment. It’s a short but timely piece about the three types of futures we all deal with, and how we can begin to ask ourselves relevant questions about the current candidates for president and vice-president of the good ‘ole U. S. of A., as well as the way they approach the future. (Which, of course, will tell us a great deal about how they will act in the present!) With the global economy shifting from industry to innovation, and the environment becoming a huge part of how we think in terms of organization, policy, and everyday life decisions, we need to think about the future as seen through the eyes of Obama/Biden and McCain/Palin!

http://www.christianfutures.com/palin_pentecostal.shtml

I’m still in Colorado Springs, but I’ll return home on Sunday, and get back to writing original content. Until then - to everyone who reads my blog on a regular basis, and to those who have found me for the first time - take care!

Spiral Dynamics Integral and the Future of the Middle East

So, as you can see, I’m back on a huge human development and social emergence focus, and here’s one of the reasons why…

I recently had the privilege of attending a session led by Don Beck and Elza Maalouf at the latest installment of the World Future Society conference in Washington, DC. The session, entitled “New Eyes, New Lenses, and a New Palestine: A Spiral Dynamics Perspective on Cultural Emergence and Nation-Building,”  was described in this way on the Center for Human Emergence website:

This presentation will illustrate the use of Spiral Dynamics in reframing the “hot” issues of our day. Rather than reinforcing the stereotypes around race, religion, and ethnicity, the focus will be on the real human differences at the core of conflicts. Likewise, it will illustrate when, why, and how “new eyes” form, creating new political models, bridging over great divides, and making possible new initiatives around mutual understanding and conflict avoidance. This is not just another theory of human behavior; rather, it is an action-oriented conceptual system that has a great deal of power and precision in addressing historic problems that many believe are intractable. Based on the seminal work of Professor Clare W. Graves, this bio-psycho-social system framework was first field-tested in dealing with Apartheid in South Africa, and is now being used literally around the world to address major issues. The current application in the Middle East, both within and between Israel and Palestine,  represents perhaps the most difficult challenge that confront those applying this emerging conceptual system.

(I talked about Spiral Dynamics in an earlier post. You can read it here!)

I pulled out a few of the quotes from the Maalouf video above that demonstrate how the Spiral Dynamics method is being used to not only help those within Palestine to think in terms of higher emergence in relation to their businesses, education, and families, but also in relation to creatively building a sustainable and innovative culture for the nation that can be an example for the entire region as well:  

Our vision is to provide a better future to our children… Our goal is a better future for our Arab culture and societies… The mission of The Center for Human Emergence is to enable transformation and emergence in our Arab reality… Our goal is to support through the Spiral Dynamics framework and the instruments of Natural Design, Arab thought leaders and innovators who are activating new ways of thinking and doing, opening up the space for new possibilities for themselves, their communities, their countries and the region as a whole.

I see this work as being crucial at this juncture in human development for two reasons:

1. Rather than looking at problems through the lens of separated issues and solutions, SD and Natural Design address the “Big Picture” thinking or cosmology of an entire people and culture, bringing a holistic approach to change dynamics.

2. Emerging issues are seen as the result of ideational factors of change, and being able to explain why people are thinking and acting the way they do can help in reacting in a way that leads to positive development and outcomes, even on a nation-wide level. In other words, human collaboration is seen as the key to directing change initiatives.

Of course, Don Beck and others have used this method for other regional development processes, but it’s also important to note how SD can be used to not only transform organizations within a country, but also to change the way those organizations operate in regards to the effect they have on national emergence and global human development overall. As Beck has stated:

It’s not that we need to form new organizations. It’s simply that we have to awaken to new ways of thinking. I believe it makes no sense to spend a lot of time attacking the current realities. It is time to create the new models that have in them the complexity that makes the older systems obsolete. And to the extent that we can do that, and do that quickly, I think we can provide what will be necessary for a major breakthrough for the future.

So, maybe this means that a third point should be added to the reasons why this type of work is vital at this point in time:

3. Organizations can begin to operate from a completely new strategic framework, creating processes that lead to human betterment while also emphasizing strategic competencies and innovation.

We can see this in the search for new forms of sustainable energy creation that rid the world of the need for environmentally and economically destructive resources, but this also means a huge change in ideational processes has to take place. Obviously, technology and market change are important for global development, but a fundamental change in human thinking is crucial. Can society find its way toward Natural Design in the formation of its organizational initiatives? We should talk about it…

P.S. I realize I’m doing all the talking here, but I definitely want to hear from others on these issues, and your comments are very welcome!