Possibilism vs. Singularity
In a nod to the ever-intrusive nature of Twitter on this blog (and maybe a sign of the “blogocalypse,” brought about by the rapidly evolving nature and effect of microblogging in Social Media), I’m writing today about, well, somebody writing about me. (How’s that for shameless promotion?)
A few days ago, I had a wonderful Twitter conversation with Dr. Kristen Alford of the foresight and communications consultancy Bridge8. In a blog post she entitled “Possibility vs. Prediction,” she noted the conversation that we had in which we talked about the role of the Futurist being one of helping others to explore transformative possibilities, as opposed to a (sadly common) misconception that Futurists are attempting to predict the future. In the post, Dr. Alford stated,
@frankspencer then let me know that the reason for posting his original tweet was in response to people challenging his self-identification as a futurist. For them, ‘futurist’ was a label only to be bestowed by someone else. While this works for people who want gurus, it doesn’t work for me. For Frank and I, it is one of our job titles earned through postgraduate studies in strategic foresight. We talked about what it is a futurist does, and the importance of methods that allow for possibility, rather than a narrow focus on trends analysis and prediction.
As Dr. Alford noted, trend analysis (though important) is not – and this is my opinion as well – the chief aim of strategic foresight, guiding organizations and leaders to focus only on short-term risk management and predictive gain. We are helping clients to identify multiple, alternative possibilities, allowing them to create strategy that is adaptive and flexible. Not one future – many futures!
And this is why I was drawn to the conclusion of Dr. Alford’s post, as well as another post she references from futurist Stuart Candy, both of which point out the need for a counter meme to The Singularity:
The notion of Possibilism (Possibilitarianism?) seems to me to provide an amusing and much-needed counter-meme to the narrow faux certainty of Singularitarianism… Meanwhile, I urge regular readers of this blog — in all likelihood, veteran Possibilians themselves — to seek out Sum wherever you can find it. Like any well-wrought set of future scenarios, each story (hypothetical outcome) can be read as entirely consistent with what is known, or believed, about the past and present so far, while simply positing different next steps. And, like the artful exploration of alternative futures, the juxtaposition of these many alternative afterlives evokes a sense of possibility space in multiple dimensions which makes it far more than merely the sum of its parts. (Italics mine)
It’s not that many of the ideas surrounding the Singularity don’t have any merit, such as the ever-increasing speed of technology and the converging results. However, pointing to only one future that is a result of (as Stuart put it) “the sum of its parts” is a mistake that no one can make anymore, especially in light of the lack of adaptability evident in our economics, governance, organizations, and social institutions.
VIVA LA POSSIBILITIES!
Image: David.Orbin (Flickr)
