The Price of Gasoline: Reframing the Energy Issue Through Discovery of Causal Dynamics and Social Assumptions

   Ok, so that’s a fairly overstated title for the post that follows, but these are some of the things that I’ve been thinking about as of late while doing some research for a foresight project. And, when I read the Robert Bryce article entitled “Gasoline is Cheap,” it reminded me of how we can better understand change through reframing of emerging issues, and how we must recognize unexpected outcomes of these issues if we are to really grasp their significance. Further, we must understand the various developmental levels of important issues - such as the stories that frame them in the public consciousness (myth and metaphor), the manner in which those issues have been reduced by cultural assumptions and worldviews, etc, - if we are to react to them in transformative ways for human advancement.

Now, this particular issue deals with the public outrage at the rising price of oil (reflected at your local gas pump), and I love some of the history and outcomes that the author points out that are not considered by most in the media, public forum, or even those in policy development:

• Gas is cheap when measured on an inflation-adjustment basis. By these standards, it’s only slightly higher than it was in 1922! (At that time, gasoline cost the current -day equivalent of $3.11.)
• The ever-increasing global demand for oil makes the rising cost a necessity. During the first quarter of last year, China’s oil consumption alone jumped 16.5%!
• In 1975, gasoline was 33.4% of the total cost of car ownership. It is now only 17.1%
• Significant declines in U.S. oil consumption (and hopefully dependence) have historically taken place only after prolonged periods of “high prices.” Isn’t decline in consumption and dependence what we want? The only way to convince everyone that we must find alternative sources of energy is to make the present source unacceptable - whether environmentally or economically. (The second being a much bigger driver of social change than the first - sorry!)
• The price of gasoline outside the U.S.: Britain - $8.38/gallon; Norway - $8.73/gallon; only one of the 32 countries surveyed by the International Energy Agency had cheaper gasoline than the U.S. in 2007.
• A Starbucks Venti Latte is the equivalent of $23 a gallon! No one is complaining. (Well, they’re complaining, but in a “tongue-in-cheek” manner, all while standing in line.)
• Budweiser is the equivalent of $11 a gallon.

These last too stats are luxury items, but have become a type of “commom-place luxury” that most Americans don’t think twice about purchasing. My point is simply that reframing this (and other) issues through looking at the actual history, cultural assumptions, social factors, reductionist arguments, political agendas, etc. can lead us to new views, new ideas, and ultimately new solutions, innovations, and transformative actions.

So, what issue or situation do you need to reframe?

Image: A Siegel (Flickr)