Transmillennial 2009

<To be filed under the category of “More Shameless Self Promotion.”> ;)

My wonderful friend Kevin Beck (@transmillennial) writes a weekly newsletter for Presence International, an organization dedicated to personal, organizational, and societal transformation. Kevin is the COO of Presence, and a true social visionary, having a broad grasp of not only matters of faith, but social entrepreneurship, economics, environmentalism, human emergence, social justice, and -yes – even some strategic foresight. In this week’s newsletter, Kevin not only points out a powerful truth about building a positive future from the perspective of faith drivers, but also gave some newsletter “love” to yours truly. Thanks again Kevin, it’s great to partner with someone with such a multi-disciplined and integral view of life!

In Kevin’s own words:

We’re already through the first quarter of the ninth year of the first decade of the first century of the millennium.

How’s that for a combination of time markers?

It serves to show several realizations. First, time is fairly arbitrary. What we call minutes, days, weeks, years, decades, and centuries are constructs. They are inventions to help us frame events.

Second, it indicates how quickly events unfold. You may recall the apocalyptic anxiety of the Y2K crisis. That was a decade ago. To others it may be more like ancient history, yet for many people Y2K was a symbol of existential and/or religious dread. Now it is nothing but a memory.

Third, we can only live in the present. The past is nothing but a story. The present is an ever-unfolding reality, a constantly emerging evolution of what is and who we are.

The awareness of this blesses us with the realization that we share in the creative process. We are not passive victims of circumstance. The unseen forces of history do not dictate how your world will develop. Instead, you have the God-given power as a co-creator to consciously shape the the future as you shape the present.

Since our inception, Presence has affirmed the “the end” spoken of by Jesus was just the beginning. We’ve transformed “eschatology” (last things”) into “archonology” (first things). First, not only in terms of time but in terms of importance. What is first — or primary — in the ordering of our lives and world? What do we value the most?

If humanity is holding out for God to magically change the physical structure of the universe, we are abdicating our position and work of creating first things here and now.

To help people understand the dynamics of first things, Presence has given people tools such as the Transformations course so they can shape first things in their lives, family, and vocation.

This is one reason why Presence partners with experts in the professional field of strategic foresight. People like Frank Spencer are preparing individuals, organizations, and society for the conscious construction of humanity’s long-term presence.

After all, when we realize that Jesus isn’t literally coming to earth any day now to set up a literal throne in Jerusalem or to blow up the planet, we might start asking, “Well, how should a Christ-shaped spirituality work itself out in our world today?”

Frank describes strategic foresight very simply.“Professional Futurists help individuals, organizations, and social institutions anticipate trends and envision positive outcomes allowing them to operate in confident participation of the future.”

In other words, if you want society and individuals to avoid the existential angst similar to Y2K, you need to envision and implement positive action that will bring about the outcomes you desire.

Put another way . . . If God isn’t planning on wiping earth out of the space-time universe, we need to take conscious steps in creating the long-term world we want our future generations to live in.

There is a lot of anxiety these days over the tremendous uncertainty in the world economy. Instead of giving in to the doom or burying our heads in the sand, we can learn how to surf the waves of change through wise use of the tools of strategic foresight.

In the upcoming, we’ll have more to say about how all of this works together. Meanwhile, Frank will be just one of the featured speakers at Transmillennial 2009 in Little Rock, Arkansas on June 10-13.

You can read Frank’s blog, Forward.

You can follow Frank on Twitter.

Thanks again Kevin! I look forward to attending Transmillennial 2009, where I will be speaking on topics such as human collaborative creativity through the practice of transdisciplinarity, human emergence and social evolution, and the shift toward a new global economic system of resilience and conscientious equality. As the dates get closer, I’ll be sure to post the Twitter hashtag for the conference, as well as the hashtags for my particular topics. Hope to see you there!

Possibilism vs. Singularity

1347917125_2120a31c13_mIn a nod to the ever-intrusive nature of Twitter on this blog (and maybe a sign of the “blogocalypse,” brought about by the rapidly evolving nature and effect of microblogging in Social Media), I’m writing today about, well, somebody writing about me. (How’s that for shameless promotion?) 

A few days ago, I had a wonderful Twitter conversation with Dr. Kristen Alford of the foresight and communications consultancy Bridge8. In a blog post she entitled “Possibility vs. Prediction,” she noted the conversation that we had in which we talked about the role of the Futurist being one of helping others to explore transformative possibilities, as opposed to a (sadly common) misconception that Futurists are attempting to predict the future. In the post, Dr. Alford stated,

@frankspencer then let me know that the reason for posting his original tweet was in response to people challenging his self-identification as a futurist. For them, ‘futurist’ was a label only to be bestowed by someone else. While this works for people who want gurus, it doesn’t work for me. For Frank and I, it is one of our job titles earned through postgraduate studies in strategic foresight. We talked about what it is a futurist does, and the importance of methods that allow for possibility, rather than a narrow focus on trends analysis and prediction.

As Dr. Alford noted, trend analysis (though important) is not – and this is my opinion as well – the chief aim of strategic foresight, guiding organizations and leaders to focus only on short-term risk management and predictive gain. We are helping clients to identify multiple, alternative possibilities, allowing them to create strategy that is adaptive and flexible. Not one future – many futures!

And this is why I was drawn to the conclusion of Dr. Alford’s post, as well as another post she references from futurist Stuart Candy, both of which point out the need for a counter meme to The Singularity:

The notion of Possibilism (Possibilitarianism?) seems to me to provide an amusing and much-needed counter-meme to the narrow faux certainty of Singularitarianism… Meanwhile, I urge regular readers of this blog — in all likelihood, veteran Possibilians themselves — to seek out Sum wherever you can find it. Like any well-wrought set of future scenarios, each story (hypothetical outcome) can be read as entirely consistent with what is known, or believed, about the past and present so far, while simply positing different next steps. And, like the artful exploration of alternative futures, the juxtaposition of these many alternative afterlives evokes a sense of possibility space in multiple dimensions which makes it far more than merely the sum of its parts. (Italics mine)

It’s not that many of the ideas surrounding the Singularity don’t have any merit, such as the ever-increasing speed of technology and the converging results. However, pointing to only one future that is a result of (as Stuart put it) “the sum of its parts” is a mistake that no one can make anymore, especially in light of the lack of adaptability evident in our economics, governance, organizations, and social institutions.

VIVA LA POSSIBILITIES!

Image: David.Orbin (Flickr)

Twitter Mash-Up #2

Ok, I promise that I’m not going to aggregate my Tweets every day, probably just on Monday or Tuesday. So, no more of these until early next week. For now, enjoy the thought stream… 

  • 20:40 Shared leadership? RT @mitchbetts: RT @Think_Better: Most org brainstorms R little more than game called, “Guess wht boss is thinking.” #
  • 20:45 I realize this is more about thinking than functionality, but… RT @prospective: chitty chitty bang bang lives!! tinyurl.com/cz2vnx #
  • 23:04 How does social entrepre. learn from crisis RT @changefeed: @socialentrprnr: Shifting Power at Skoll Forum, Day 1 tinyurl.com/c55qy5 #
  • 00:21 you should follow @ericgarland, @Urbanverse, and @kristinalford. 7 more picks at twibes.com/?r=T1 #
  • 02:23 Synthetic blood in 5 – 10 years. RT @iftf: Good Magazine introduces us 2 future of blood donation – www.good.is/?p=16581 #health #
  • 10:18 RT @kristinalford: RT @tim_harper: @2020science & @tim_harper on the rise of Chinese nanotech in today’s Guardian bit.ly/xOLaY #
  • 10:20 Good graphic on various economic datat. RT @graphicfacilit8: FlowingData – Check In on the State of the Economy tinyurl.com/conyo2 #
  • 10:24 RT @davos: Denmark, Sweden, USA lead Global Information Technology Report 2009. China improves 11 places www.weforum.org/gitr #
  • 10:26 RT @kristinalford: RT @2020science: Skin is gd barrier 2 nanoparticles “sum particles could b deadly” is overstatement, though sum worry me #
  • 10:32 Geithner plan toxic; again, guys at the helm have no idea about transformation! RT @HarvardBiz: Economics Minus 1.0: bit.ly/Ttdsw #
  • 10:34 RT @inhabitat: Monitoring Water Pollution With Robotic Fish tinyurl.com/d83w7n #
  • 10:38 Emergent process “how to” RT @rossdawson: Pilots as key instrument for improving org performance in complex world bit.ly/2a1aNy #
  • 10:42 RT @fastcompany: GM/Chrysler 2 Get Bailed Again, Peter Chernin Meets Peter Griffin, Amazon-Digg? in 2day’s Inno. News shortn.me/ke #
  • 10:45 It’s the little things… RT @tpurves: heh. the real reason ebooks will finally trump the paperbak? tinyurl.com/c6wewm #
  • 10:51 Twttr up, blogs down RT @TEDchris: Twttr starting 2 take big bite out of blog-time? tinyurl.com/d6ddnz tinyurl.com/dgof2g #
  • 11:00 Think patient access when I read. RT @IFTFHealth: RT @WSJHealthBlogDocs, Hospitals Skip Electronic Records 4 Same Reason bit.ly/ergj2 #
  • 11:14 But not w/ bailout $, company was broke! RT @timoreilly: RT @lmuszkie: Different, eye-opening perspective w/i AIG. snurl.com/ejt73 #
  • 11:21 RT @tpurves: Working on a new talk: “In the new augmented reality, the web surfs you.” #
  • 11:29 RT @transmillennial: My new article on creative futures and a tendency to try to return to the past. tinyurl.com/d65hfu #
  • 11:32 RT @shannatrenholm: A question: Are you still buying bottled water? Did you know it takes three bottles of water to make one? #
  • 11:55 RT @timoreilly: John Doerr in @sciam: Green Road to Prosperity. I agree. Huge opportunity to “do well by doing good.” bit.ly/xF44Z #
  • 11:56 RT @tpurves: We once sat still & surfed worldwideweb. Now w/ mobile, cloud stays where it is but watches, surfs us, as we move thru world. #
  • 12:53 RT @senatorgrant: @frankspencer by time laws go in2 effect they will b outdated. better 2 req digital literacy tinyurl.com/dg2syq #
  • 13:01 Adding 2 robot theme-day RT @seedmag: Researchers develop robot capable of interacting w/ world using biological brain. is.gd/p5EQ #
  • 13:39 RT @patrickdixon: Wii sales 50 million. Ex. of simple innovation (motion sensors) 2 recharge old idea (comp. games). EXPECT: more sensors. #
  • 13:55 #MrTweet I recommend @Urbanverse because she is top-notch futurist, highly engaging, broad interests, multidisciplined. #
  • 14:04 Just added myself to the wefollow.com twitter directory under: #FuturesStudies #StrategicForesight #ForesightConsultant #
  • 16:52 RT @changefeed: ->@socialentrprnr: Resilience: What the Poor Can Teach the Rich Right Now tinyurl.com/dzzfnv #
  • 17:06 Reframing underway RT @McKQuarterly: RT @JOHNABYRNE: “After Era of Excess,” superb essay by Stephen Roach #whatmatters is.gd/p7pu #
  • 17:28 Had to RT this, thnx @tedmurphy: OH : Octomom special at dennys – 8 eggs, no sausage and the guy next to you pays for it. #
  • 19:10 RT @garrygolden: IBM unveils ’smart’ water systems, who owns ecosys data as we layer Digital Gaia…oh, Sensor Age! budurl.com/73gz #
  • 19:30 “Time 2 Deliver: 7 Steps 2 Revolution.” Good blog post by Futurist Sara Robinson, time 2 use foresight 4 nu reality. bit.ly/T9tF7 #

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Twitter Mash-Up: My Daily Thoughts and Ideas from the Twitterverse

2384656420_1b5cfd577e_oSo, no way does this take the place of an actual blog post, though many are starting to speculate that the traditional form of blogging is already on the way out: blog posts are usually more than people want to read when gathering info – believe it or not, and it’s often just another form of navel-gazing. (Has blogging been around long enough to categorize the practice as “traditional?” And in this age of “high-speed” everything, how fast is the “traditional” turn-around time?) Regardless, I will continue blogging @ Forward!, but I thought it interesting (more of an experiment and social capture than actually useful) to aggregate my “Tweets” here on a daily basis, as “micro-blogging” is rapidly replacing it’s older sibling (or cousin, all in how you view it I guess). Nonetheless, you can find some great links by my “following/followers” in these lists, and it’s fun to see the stream of thought, the collaborative ideas, and the environmental scanning that takes place each and every day! (Yes, EACH AND EVERY DAY, I’m Twitter-addicted!)

  • 22:16 Ah, driver of spirituality, oftn discounted! RT @WestPeter: <Article> Y is Spirituality Integral 2 Management Ed? is.gd/oNBb + ToC $ #
  • 22:20 RT @TEDchris: Wow. Jacqueline’s talk hit front page of Digg, complete w/ a headline that, er, speaks 2 a deeper truth. is.gd/oNNr #
  • 22:23 RT @timoreilly: RT @juliandarley: China’s central bank calls 4 new global reserve currency run by IMF 2 replace dollar is.gd/oFLa #
  • 22:30 Thanks 4 inclusion, Kristin, & 4 pointing 2 possibility RT @kristinalford: Twitlog on possibility of possibility tinyurl.com/dlc4v5 #
  • 22:36 RT @prospective: nanotech led recession buster? tinyurl.com/c5hprx can nano save us? #
  • 22:41 Savannah as game development mecca, & reasons why! RT @creativecoast: Cat’s Out of Bag: We’re after Game Developers. twurl.nl/23xvli #
  • 00:11 RT @avantgame: overheard & in luv: “There’s always going 2 b another curtain. You’ll run out of U before the Mystery runs out of curtains.” #
  • 00:15 Now using LoudTwitter bit.ly/15cD for daily mash-up of my Tweets to my blog. bit.ly/13aoO9 #
  • 01:09 Awesome Graphic Recording of Obama’s Inauguration speech by Brandy Agerbeck of Loosetooth.com bit.ly/yuvrN #
  • 01:12 Awsum Graphic Recording #2 of Obama’s Inaug. speech by Stephanie Crowley of Chrysalis Studios, thnx 2 @christinamerk bit.ly/9H3hJ #
  • 12:55 RT @TEDchris: Snarky WSJ piece on the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is.gd/oRLZ features #TED speaker Charles Moore is.gd/kFLM #
  • 13:00 Ever seen pics of these mountaintops? Will make U sick! RT @transmillennial: EPA 2 review mountaintop mining. tinyurl.com/cgk68o #
  • 13:08 Human spiral emergence. RT @TEDchris: Was born in Pakistan, wnt 2 school in India. Call me sappy, but vid brought tears. is.gd/oSSI #
  • 13:41 RT @TEDchris: David Pogue’s cellphone tips from eg just posted at ted.com; helpful and funny. is.gd/oTi7 #
  • 14:35 Google info: Free 411 from cell phone (800-GOOG-411). Gr8! Also, ChaCha will answer ANY ? (800 2ChaCha) I asked 4 all Batman actors. #
  • 14:39 RT @WiserEarth: RT @starfocus 9 Reasons Social Media and the Web Can Save Wildlife: (DIGG) bit.ly/5IE2q #
  • 14:43 4 social evo & Starship reference ;) RT @changefeed: @TechPresident: DIYcity: We Built This City on Rails and Code tinyurl.com/clwmvx #
  • 14:47 How does this jive w/ human emergence, social evo? RT @foratv: Justice Antonin Scalia: The U.S. Constitution is ‘Dead’ bit.ly/P3M3O #
  • 14:50 RT @fastcompany: iFive: Facebook Surrenders, Pepsi Lightens Up, and Boxee Opens Pandora’s Box in Today’s Innovation News shortn.me/jN #
  • 14:56 Track and manage health regimens. RT @IFTFHealth: Congratulations to Zume Life on going live! tinyurl.com/cehle8 #
  • 14:58 The reason you aren’t getting hired… RT @murphytwin: hilarious website: nothired.com/ #
  • 16:36 RT @digitalwaveride: WSJ reports: Twitter Confirms Fee-Based Accounts Coming Soon – (via @guykawasaki: ) adjix.com/r8f5 #
  • 16:39 RT @ChristinaMerk: As U delib seek things 2 appreciate, praise, enjoy, U achieve vibrational harmony w/ Source & all that is good. ~Abraham #
  • 16:42 RT @changefeed: @Osocio: Everybody is against everybody tinyurl.com/c4lu8b #
  • 16:43 RT @michele_perras: micro-fundraising, one pixel at a time: www.rhizome.org/50k/ #
  • 16:46 “Meaning” as result in quest RT @iftf: IFTF’s David Pescovitz writes DIY Funerals & Quest for Authenticity – www.good.is/?p=16538 #
  • 16:47 Get on the bus, gus… it’s surprisingly green! RT @Worldchanging: In Praise Of The Lowly Bus tinyurl.com/coztq9 #
  • 16:53 Luv this blog: Short, sweet, powerful! RT @tpurves: NU POST: How Mobile Web & “Augmented Reality” Changes Retail 4ever bit.ly/32gln4 #
  • 18:22 Better ?, is global. changing? RT @McKQuarterly: #whatmatters Will globalization b derailed by world financial crisis? bit.ly/irQRa #
  • 18:26 RT @foratv: Ubiquitous Computing: Second Life Meets First Life (eComm) bit.ly/yFz2j #
  • 19:35 RT @ChristinaMerk: All new Integral Life content this week is free! integrallife.com (RT @CoreyWdeVos) #

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Dinosaur-Size Business: The Evolutionary Path of Organizational Development

Dinosaur Walk by Mykl Roventine. It’s been awhile… I hope everyone is having a fantastic 2009 so far. With the current global economic situation, I think we would all do well to think more in terms of transformation and aspirations rather than automatically reverting to a “doom and gloom” attitude. The latter is much too easy to do, and certainly does nothing to change the circumstances or create developmental dynamics that lead to those “better days ahead.” (By now, we should have all learned that our individual and collective mentalities are more than half the battle!)

So, as I’ve had plenty of time to mull over ideas – both old and new – to help me get back in full-swing, I’ve created somewhat of a storehouse of potential blog posts. Nonetheless, I couldn’t help but see the obvious metaphor in a recent article from Slate entitled “A Snake the Size of a Plane: How Did Prehistoric Animals Get So Big?”

In the article, writer Nina Shen Rastogi noted that prehistoric animals grew to enormous sizes – such as the massive boa, which was the size of a Volkswagon Beetle, and asked why we do not see those type of massive animals in our day? The following is a list of the reasons, along with the obvious analogy to organizational evolutionary dynamics, especially in these times of volatile change:

1. They simply had a long-time to develop into the behemoths that they were.

And the same has been true of many of the massive corporations and businesses that we see moving toward extinction today. In this climate of volatile change and upheaval, organizations no longer have the luxury of time on their side in terms of slow development and growth. Now, smaller businesses that are strong in terms of innovation and creative transformation have an evolutionary advantage, and businesses that are stuck in the rut of traditional models and thinking will find themselves no longer able to survive in the era of reframing, restructuring, and rethinking. 

2. Larger size could have been an evolutionary advantage.

Rastogi noted that the larger animals could have been less vulnerable to predators and were better suited to compete for resources. However, this can also be their undoing: when the resources are depleted (sound familiar?), then these giant creatures are the first to go. Likewise, the predators begin to slowly adapt to hunting techniques against these behemoths, and then their bulky frame and size becomes a “giant” liability. I’m sure you get the metaphor, so I’ll leave it at that.

3. In-between long periods of growth, the earth saw large-scale extinction events, and only the adaptive survive during these times.

Larger animals are less able to cope during times of upheaval and crisis, and so they are the first to become extinct. However, smaller animals are better able to adapt to the change, and they become the inhabitants of the new landscape. Smaller animals have even created the evolutionary ability to reproduce more rapidly, and so they take over the territory that was once the domain of the larger beasts. Likewise, change-oriented, flexible, adaptive, and transformational businesses can survive an extinction event (such as the one we are all experiencing presently), but such an environment and culture does not allow for the former masters to retain their place of prominence. 

In light of this evolutionary path of birth, growth, death, and transformation, it behooves us all – no matter what domain we inhabit – to think about these issues in order to not only survive, but to move forward in an advantageous and productive fashion:

  • We need to recognize when “Creative Destruction” is taking place, and react accordingly. What are the breakpoints, the breakdowns, and the breakthroughs in our domain? What changes are happening, and how should we think , act, and reframe to prosper in the “new age.”
  • What other discontinuous events might take place that could cause us to become “extinct?” In terms of the present economic crisis, how can we react transformationally in order to turn “disaster” into “preferable futures.” Where exactly is the extinction event leading, what new landscapes will be created, and what further troubles can we anticipate before the event is “over?”
  • What will the “new species” that rule the post-extinction landscape going to look like, act like, feel like? What will they think about technological advancement, and how will they utilize it? What will they do in terms of human and environmental resiliency, and how will this benefit economic systems?
  • What will the “ruling culture” of the “new era” look and sound like? What is your present organizational culture, and can it fit into (or is it ready to adapt to) the emerging climate of the “new age?”
  • What type of leadership will be required for the environment of the new era of business, organizational development, tech development, human emergence, social entrepreneurship, and driver advantage? If the top-heavy leaders are becoming extinct, what emerging model will lead us into new and transformational landscapes that require greater collaborative participation an open source environments?

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